{"id":2877,"date":"2025-04-10T12:13:22","date_gmt":"2025-04-10T12:13:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bright-capital.sg\/?p=2877"},"modified":"2025-04-10T12:13:22","modified_gmt":"2025-04-10T12:13:22","slug":"tong-thong-donald-trump-va-thue-doi-ung-nhung-dieu-nha-dau-tu-can-biet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bright-capital.sg\/vi\/2025\/04\/10\/tong-thong-donald-trump-va-thue-doi-ung-nhung-dieu-nha-dau-tu-can-biet\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u1ed4NG TH\u1ed0NG DONALD TRUMP V\u00c0 THU\u1ebe \u0110\u1ed0I \u1ee8NG – NH\u1eeeNG \u0110I\u1ec0U NH\u00c0 \u0110\u1ea6U T\u01af C\u1ea6N BI\u1ebeT."},"content":{"rendered":"
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  1. T\u1ed5ng quan t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh Thu\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed1i \u1ee9ng<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
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    • V\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 5\/4, T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Trump th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o vi\u1ec7c \u00e1p thu\u1ebf t\u1ed1i thi\u1ec3u 10% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 h\u00e0ng nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u v\u00e0o M\u1ef9. C\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u01b0 Anh, Argentina, \u00dac, Brazil v\u00e0 \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Saudi n\u1eb1m trong s\u1ed1 nh\u1eefng n\u01b0\u1edbc b\u1ecb \u00e1p m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf n\u00e0y.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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      • \u0110\u1ebfn ng\u00e0y 9\/4, M\u1ef9 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng thu\u1ebf m\u1ea1nh \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a t\u1eeb 60 qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c, bao g\u1ed3m: 49% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u00e0ng nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u t\u1eeb Campuchia, 46% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u00e0ng nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u t\u1eeb Vi\u1ec7t Nam, 20% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a t\u1eeb Li\u00ean minh ch\u00e2u \u00c2u (EU).\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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        • Ri\u00eang h\u00e0ng nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c ban \u0111\u1ea7u d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn b\u1ecb \u00e1p thu\u1ebf 54% (t\u0103ng th\u00eam 34% tr\u00ean m\u1ee9c 20% c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n). Tuy nhi\u00ean, Trump \u0111\u00e3 n\u00e2ng thu\u1ebf l\u00ean 104% sau khi Trung Qu\u1ed1c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 s\u1ebd “chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00f9ng” v\u00e0 t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i b\u1ecf m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a 34% m\u00e0 h\u1ecd \u0111ang \u00e1p l\u00ean h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a M\u1ef9.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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          • Nh\u00e0 Tr\u1eafng g\u1ecdi m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf cao h\u01a1n n\u00e0y l\u00e0 “c\u00f3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed1i \u1ee9ng” (reciprocal), t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf m\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c \u0111ang \u00e1p l\u00ean h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a M\u1ef9, c\u1ed9ng th\u00eam c\u00e1c chi ph\u00ed tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 quy \u0111\u1ecbnh phi thu\u1ebf quan. Tuy nhi\u00ean, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 qu\u1ed1c gia b\u1ecb \u00e1p thu\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec1u r\u01a1i v\u00e0o ti\u00eau ch\u00ed n\u00e0y. Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, thu\u1ebf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean vi\u1ec7c lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u1edbi t\u1eebng qu\u1ed1c gia.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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            • M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 n\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u01b0 Anh v\u1eabn b\u1ecb \u00e1p thu\u1ebf d\u00f9 h\u1ecd mua h\u00e0ng M\u1ef9 nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n b\u00e1n sang M\u1ef9.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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              • Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, Trump c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf 25% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a t\u1eeb Mexico v\u00e0 Canada, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi 10% thu\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u t\u1eeb Canada, nh\u01b0ng sau \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 mi\u1ec5n tr\u1eeb v\u00e0 tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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                • Ngo\u00e0i ra, M\u1ef9 c\u0169ng \u00e1p thu\u1ebf 25% l\u00ean t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m th\u00e9p, nh\u00f4m nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u v\u00e0 \u00f4 t\u00f4 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u1edf n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i. Thu\u1ebf 25% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi linh ki\u1ec7n \u00f4 t\u00f4 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 hi\u1ec7u l\u1ef1c sau.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                  \"US,<\/span> T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Donald Trump ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u v\u1ec1 thu\u1ebf quan t\u1ea1i V\u01b0\u1eddn H\u1ed3ng \u1edf Nh\u00e0 Tr\u1eafng, Washington, DC, v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 2 th\u00e1ng 4. (\u1ea2nh: Carlos Barria\/Reuters)<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

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                  1. Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c Qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Thu\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed1i \u1ee9ng.<\/b><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
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                    • Vi\u1ec7t Nam: <\/b>Ngay sau khi M\u1ef9 c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch thu\u1ebf m\u1edbi v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 3\/4, Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n nhi\u1ec1u bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 nhanh ch\u00f3ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u1ee9ng ph\u00f3. Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp kh\u1ea9n c\u1ea5p, g\u1eedi c\u00f4ng h\u00e0m ngo\u1ea1i giao \u0111\u1ec1 ngh\u1ecb ho\u00e3n \u00e1p thu\u1ebf, th\u00e0nh l\u1eadp t\u1ed5 c\u00f4ng t\u00e1c do Ph\u00f3 Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng B\u00f9i Thanh S\u01a1n \u0111\u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ea7u nh\u1eb1m t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c v\u00e0 th\u00edch \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                      T\u1ed5ng B\u00ed th\u01b0 T\u00f4 L\u00e2m \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e0m v\u1edbi T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Donald Trump, \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m thu\u1ebf nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u t\u1eeb M\u1ef9 xu\u1ed1ng 0% v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec1 ngh\u1ecb M\u1ef9 \u00e1p m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a Vi\u1ec7t Nam. Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u0169ng cam k\u1ebft t\u0103ng nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u t\u1eeb M\u1ef9, v\u1edbi k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch mua 250 m\u00e1y bay Boeing, kh\u00ed h\u00f3a l\u1ecfng (LNG) tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 6 t\u1ef7 USD v\u00e0 c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m kh\u00e1c tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 h\u01a1n 90 t\u1ef7 USD.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

                      Ngo\u00e0i ra, Vi\u1ec7t Nam t\u00edch c\u1ef1c g\u1ee1 b\u1ecf r\u00e0o c\u1ea3n k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a M\u1ef9, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 n\u00f4ng s\u1ea3n, v\u00e0 si\u1ebft ch\u1eb7t ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n gian l\u1eadn xu\u1ea5t x\u1ee9, trung chuy\u1ec3n b\u1ea5t h\u1ee3p ph\u00e1p.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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                      • Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch \u1ee6y ban C<\/strong><\/span>h\u00e2u \u00c2u<\/b> Ursula von der Leyen c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng “h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 s\u1ebd v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u00e0ng tri\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u”.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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                        • Canada<\/b> \u0111\u00e3 \u00e1p thu\u1ebf 25% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 lo\u1ea1i xe nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u t\u1eeb M\u1ef9 v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 9 th\u00e1ng 4.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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                          • Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng <\/span>\u00dd<\/b> Giorgia Meloni \u2013 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed3ng minh c\u1ee7a Trump \u2013 cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a l\u00e0 “sai l\u1ea7m” nh\u01b0ng b\u00e0 s\u1ebd l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn v\u1edbi M\u1ef9 nh\u1eb1m “ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i”.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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                            • T\u1ea1i <\/span>C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a Ireland,<\/b> Miche\u00e1l Martin tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 “b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 s\u1ef1 bi\u1ec7n minh n\u00e0o” cho c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf “v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng \u0111\u00e1ng ti\u1ebfc” n\u00e0y, v\u00ec ch\u00fang “kh\u00f4ng mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i \u00edch cho ai c\u1ea3”.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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                              • Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Australia Anthony Albanese n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng “\u0111\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1ea1n”.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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                                • Quy\u1ec1n T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng <\/span>H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c<\/b> Han Duck-Soo cho bi\u1ebft “cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c”.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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                                  • Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n<\/b> tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf 24% l\u00e0 “v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng \u0111\u00e1ng ti\u1ebfc” v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 vi ph\u1ea1m c\u00e1c th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a T\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c Th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi (WTO) c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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                                    1. Di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t t\u1eeb t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Donald Trump (10\/04\/2025)\u00a0<\/b><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                      T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Donald Trump \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 t\u1ea1m d\u1eebng trong 90 ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf c\u00f3 \u0111i c\u00f3 l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 hi\u1ec7u l\u1ef1c t\u1eeb n\u1eeda \u0111\u00eam, ngo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c. Quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e1nh d\u1ea5u m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 c\u1ee9ng r\u1eafn tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c.<\/span><\/p>\n

                                      Ngay sau th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Dow Jones t\u0103ng g\u1ea7n 3.000 \u0111i\u1ec3m (+7,87%), S&P 500 t\u0103ng 9,5%, c\u00f2n Nasdaq v\u1ecdt l\u00ean 12,2%, \u0111\u00e1nh d\u1ea5u ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 10\/2008.<\/span><\/p>\n

                                      Ngo\u00e0i ra, c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (m\u00e3 DJT) \u2013 c\u00f4ng ty m\u1eb9 c\u1ee7a Truth Social \u2013 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng h\u01a1n 20% trong ng\u00e0y th\u1ee9 T\u01b0 sau khi gi\u1ea3m 13% trong th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3.<\/span><\/p>\n

                                      Vi\u1ec7c ho\u00e3n \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng thu\u1ebf s\u1ebd gi\u00fap cho ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c, tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u1ec3 nh\u00ecn nh\u1eadn t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y, d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 t\u00f3m t\u1eaft ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 chuy\u00ean gia:<\/span><\/p>\n

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                                      1. Nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia<\/b><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                        Li\u1ec7u Trump c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau?<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

                                        Theo Tim Salmon<\/span> – <\/span>Gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 Kinh t\u1ebf t\u1ea1i \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Southern Methodist, T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Donald Trump tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng thu\u1ebf quan s\u1ebd gi\u00fap:\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

                                        (1) Thu v\u1ec1 6 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD t\u1eeb c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

                                        (2) Th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t trong n\u01b0\u1edbc, t\u1ea1o ra vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 gi\u00e0u c\u00f3 cho M\u1ef9.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

                                        Tuy nhi\u00ean, v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t to\u00e1n h\u1ecdc, hai \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 c\u00f9ng x\u1ea3y ra. N\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 thu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 6 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD t\u1eeb thu\u1ebf quan, \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9 v\u1eabn ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u thay v\u00ec chuy\u1ec3n sang s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t trong n\u01b0\u1edbc. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, n\u1ebfu s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t trong n\u01b0\u1edbc b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5, vi\u1ec7c nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m v\u00e0 s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n thu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1eeb thu\u1ebf quan s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

                                        Ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta cho r\u1eb1ng M\u1ef9 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t n\u1eefa, nh\u01b0ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba \u0111ang \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c.V\u1eady t\u1ea1i sao s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m trong ng\u00e0nh s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u1ea1i gi\u1ea3m? \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 v\u00ec c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y hi\u1ec7n nay s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng robot ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i con ng\u01b0\u1eddi. Vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m trong ng\u00e0nh s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb “c\u01b0\u1edbp” b\u1edfi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y \u1edf Mexico m\u00e0 b\u1ecb c\u01b0\u1edbp b\u1edfi robot. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 m\u1ecdi nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec1u hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 t\u1eeb l\u00e2u, ngo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb gia \u0111ang c\u1ed1 b\u00e1n cho b\u1ea1n nh\u1eefng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng kh\u1ea9u hi\u1ec7u “c\u1ea3m gi\u00e1c t\u1ed1t”.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

                                        Ngay c\u1ea3 khi t\u0103ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u1edf M\u1ef9, n\u00f3 c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng t\u1ea1o ra nhi\u1ec1u vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m cho con ng\u01b0\u1eddi. Ch\u00fang ta ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n l\u00e0 l\u00e0m cho robot l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n. Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed c\u00f4ng ty mu\u1ed1n m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i xem x\u00e9t bao g\u1ed3m:\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

                                        \u0110\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, b\u1ea1n ph\u1ea3i x\u00e2y nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y. Nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1: t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nguy\u00ean v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y \u0111\u1ec1u b\u1ecb \u0111\u00e1nh thu\u1ebf, khi\u1ebfn chi ph\u00ed t\u0103ng cao h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i \u2013 trong khi ngay c\u1ea3 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi b\u1ecb \u0111\u00e1nh thu\u1ebf, vi\u1ec7c x\u00e2y nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. Ch\u01b0a k\u1ec3, c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u0169ng b\u1ecb \u0111\u00e1nh thu\u1ebf, l\u00e0m gi\u00e1 th\u00e0nh s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m \u0111\u1ed9i l\u00ean r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

                                        V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 th\u1ee9 hai: Ai s\u1ebd l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c trong nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y \u0111\u00f3? N\u1ebfu nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y c\u1ea7n nhi\u1ec1u lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, th\u00ec hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i t\u00ecm c\u00f4ng nh\u00e2n r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3. N\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ebft lao \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u01b0 th\u1eeba, trong khi l\u1ea1i \u0111ang si\u1ebft ch\u1eb7t nh\u1eadp c\u01b0 v\u00e0 tr\u1ee5c xu\u1ea5t ng\u01b0\u1eddi nh\u1eadp c\u01b0. V\u00ec th\u1ebf, mu\u1ed1n s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, b\u1ea1n g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 ph\u1ea3i s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng robot.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

                                        V\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng b\u00e1n h\u00e0ng: Xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3, v\u00ec c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c s\u1ebd c\u1ea5m ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u00e1nh thu\u1ebf h\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n, v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n c\u0169ng qu\u00e1 cao \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1ea1nh tranh.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

                                        Theo nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a UBS, c\u00e1c t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra:<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

                                        T\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng c\u01a1 s\u1edf (x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 50% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra), m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf quan s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3m so v\u1edbi c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 ban \u0111\u1ea7u, b\u1edfi ch\u00ednh T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u00e3 m\u1edf l\u1eddi m\u1eddi \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n v\u00e0 B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u0169ng cho bi\u1ebft c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf m\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 “m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t” v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh n\u1ebfu c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c. Tuy nhi\u00ean, qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u00e0y s\u1ebd m\u1ea5t th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f2n t\u0103ng thu\u1ebf n\u1ebfu c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

                                        T\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c (x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 20% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra), thu\u1ebf quan c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c nhanh ch\u00f3ng \u2013 nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p thu\u1ebf v\u1edbi Mexico v\u00e0 Canada t\u1eebng b\u1ecb h\u1ee7y ch\u1ec9 sau v\u00e0i ng\u00e0y do s\u1ee9c \u00e9p t\u1eeb doanh nghi\u1ec7p. Tuy nhi\u00ean, l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f3 x\u1ea3y ra v\u00ec t\u00ednh bi\u1ec3u t\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 ph\u1ea1m vi \u00e1p thu\u1ebf r\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

                                        T\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c (x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 30% kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra) l\u00e0 c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf v\u1eabn duy tr\u00ec h\u01a1n 3\u20136 th\u00e1ng ho\u1eb7c t\u0103ng th\u00eam do c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a. Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea9y M\u1ef9 v\u00e0o suy tho\u00e1i v\u00e0 bu\u1ed9c Fed ph\u1ea3i c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t s\u00e2u h\u01a1n (kho\u1ea3ng 300 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n). <\/span>
                                        \n<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

                                          \n
                                        1. Khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 (Theo c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a UBS)<\/b>
                                          \n<\/span>5.1 C\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu<\/b>
                                          \n<\/span>Vi\u1ec7c chuy\u1ec3n sang m\u1ed9t k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n thu\u1ebf quan m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd h\u01a1n trong tu\u1ea7n qua \u0111\u00e3 g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                          S\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng v\u1eabn \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao trong nh\u1eefng tu\u1ea7n t\u1edbi, khi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 xem x\u00e9t kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng h\u1ea1 c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9, nguy c\u01a1 leo thang thu\u1ebf quan theo ki\u1ec3u “\u0103n mi\u1ebfng tr\u1ea3 mi\u1ebfng”, v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng. T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t giai \u0111o\u1ea1n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n M\u1ef9.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

                                          Tuy nhi\u00ean, UBS tin r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd k\u1ebft th\u00fac n\u0103m v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c cao h\u01a1n v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c th\u1ea5y ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd trong c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c kinh doanh c\u00f3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1edbi m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd nh\u01b0 tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o, n\u00e2ng cao tu\u1ed5i th\u1ecd, n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean. C\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n do c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 gi\u1ea3m r\u1ee7i ro. Nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 xem x\u00e9t s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn t\u1eeb l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

                                          D\u00f9 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111ang cao, UBS c\u0169ng tin r\u1eb1ng khi b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m, c\u00e1c tin t\u1ee9c m\u1edbi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ea7n tr\u1edf n\u00ean t\u00edch c\u1ef1c h\u01a1n. Khi c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1, c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt ch\u00fang c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u. Doanh thu t\u1eeb thu\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp chi ph\u00ed k\u00e9o d\u00e0i c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m thu\u1ebf. UBS c\u0169ng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang (Fed) s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng suy y\u1ebfu b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

                                          C\u00e1c m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf m\u1edbi s\u1ebd c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ebfn ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c. Sau c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m \u0111\u1ebfn nay, m\u1ed9t giai \u0111o\u1ea1n gi\u1ea3m r\u1ee7i ro trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n l\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t n\u1ebfu c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1. UBS gi\u1eef quan \u0111i\u1ec3m trung l\u1eadp \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u1ea3 hai th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

                                          5.2 C\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh (Fixed Income): <\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

                                          UBS tin r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cao l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn. L\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu v\u1eabn duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i cao trong nh\u1eefng tu\u1ea7n g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y t\u1ea1o ra c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm thu nh\u1eadp b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng t\u1eeb danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a thu nh\u1eadp b\u1eb1ng ti\u1ec1n m\u1eb7t.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

                                          D\u00f9 Fed \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n khi t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng suy gi\u1ea3m v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean do c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c thu\u1ebf m\u1edbi, UBS tin r\u1eb1ng n\u1ebfu c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u suy y\u1ebfu tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, Fed s\u1ebd c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t nhanh h\u01a1n. N\u1ed7i lo v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng thu\u1ebf quan t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i l\u00e2u d\u00e0i c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a Fed v\u00e0 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cao.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

                                          5.3 Ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

                                          UBS cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch giao d\u1ecbch theo bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 trong c\u00e1c c\u1eb7p EUR\/USD, USD\/CHF v\u00e0 GBP\/USD. X\u00e9t ri\u00eang l\u1ebb, thu\u1ebf quan c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed3ng USD, v\u00e0 trong c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n r\u1ee7i ro gia t\u0103ng, \u0111\u1ed3ng USD truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

                                          Tuy nhi\u00ean, hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb tri\u1ec7t ti\u00eau do kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng h\u1ea1 th\u1ea5p d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c. Ngo\u00e0i ra, d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a r\u1eddi kh\u1ecfi t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 b\u1eb1ng USD do b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y v\u1ec1 l\u00e2u d\u00e0i.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

                                          N\u1ebfu c\u00e1c r\u1ee7i ro gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111i k\u00e8m v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c Fed c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn, \u0111\u1ed3ng USD c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 suy y\u1ebfu trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

                                          Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, UBS k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u00e0ng, hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang tr\u00ean m\u1ee9c 3.000 USD\/ounce, s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau gi\u00e1 v\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a UBS v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m l\u00e0 3.200 USD\/ounce theo k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, nh\u01b0ng kim lo\u1ea1i n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 giao d\u1ecbch \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao h\u01a1n n\u1ebfu thu\u1ebf quan duy tr\u00ec l\u00e2u h\u01a1n d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

                                          B\u00e0i vi\u1ebft tr\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p t\u1eeb c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n sau \u0111\u00e2y:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n